Background/aims Extranodal marginal zone lymphoma of ocular adnexa (OA-EMZL) is the most frequent type of ocular adnexal lymphomas, with a high rate of disease recurrence. Precise patient stratification based on disease recurrence is understudied. This study aims to identify risk factors of distant recurrence (DR) and local recurrence (LR) to construct a prognostic model optimising rapid decision of therapeutic strategies.

Methods A total of 104 patients diagnosed with OA-EMZL between January 2011 and February 2020 were enrolled. Propensity score matching was performed for DR and LR groups. A nomogram was generated using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model.

Results After matching, different independent risk factors of DR and LR were identified. Monocyte percentage (p=0.015) and M category >0 (p=0.043) were significant independent risk factors of DR. Epiphora (p<0.001) was the significant independent risk factor of LR. Three factors (monocyte percentage, M category >0, age >60) were integrated into the nomogram to predict the risk of DR. It had a relatively better discriminative ability for distant recurrence-free survival (C-index: 3-year, 0.784; 6-year, 0.801) than IPI score (C-index: 3-year, 0.663; 6-year, 0.673) in the cohort of all patients.

Conclusion Our analyses suggested DR and LR as two distinct prognostic events, and additionally identified novel risk factors of them. The nomogram may serve as a practical tool for the prognostic estimation and rapid decision of therapeutic strategies for patients with OA-EMZL.