Aim To predict antivascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) treatment requirements, visual acuity and morphological outcomes in neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) using fluid quantification by artificial intelligence (AI) in a real-world cohort.

Methods Spectral-domain optical coherence tomography data of 158 treatment-naïve patients with nAMD from the Fight Retinal Blindness! registry in Zurich were processed at baseline, and after initial treatment using intravitreal anti-VEGF to predict subsequent 1-year and 4-year outcomes. Intraretinal and subretinal fluid and pigment epithelial detachment volumes were segmented using a deep learning algorithm (Vienna Fluid Monitor, RetInSight, Vienna, Austria). A predictive machine learning model for future treatment requirements and morphological outcomes was built using the computed set of quantitative features.

Results Two hundred and two eyes from 158 patients were evaluated. 107 eyes had a lower median (≤7) and 95 eyes had an upper median (≥8) number of injections in the first year, with a mean accuracy of prediction of 0.77 (95% CI 0.71 to 0.83) area under the curve (AUC). Best-corrected visual acuity at baseline was the most relevant predictive factor determining final visual outcomes after 1 year. Over 4 years, half of the eyes had progressed to macular atrophy (MA) with the model being able to distinguish MA from non-MA eyes with a mean AUC of 0.70 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.79). Prediction for subretinal fibrosis reached an AUC of 0.74 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.81).

Conclusions The regulatory approved AI-based fluid monitoring allows clinicians to use automated algorithms in prospectively guided patient treatment in AMD. Furthermore, retinal fluid localisation and quantification can predict long-term morphological outcomes.