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Epidemiology
Global prevalence, trend and projection of myopia in children and adolescents from 1990 to 2050: a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis
  1. Jinghong Liang1,
  2. Yingqi Pu1,
  3. Jiaqi Chen1,
  4. Meiling Liu1,
  5. Bowen Ouyang2,
  6. Zhengge Jin1,
  7. Wenxin Ge1,
  8. Zhuowen Wu1,
  9. Xiuzhi Yang1,
  10. Chunsong Qin3,
  11. Cong Wang4,
  12. Shan Huang1,
  13. Nan Jiang1,
  14. Lixin Hu1,
  15. Yushan Zhang1,
  16. Zhaohuan Gui5,
  17. Xueya Pu1,
  18. Shaoyi Huang1,
  19. Yajun Chen1
    1. 1 Department of Maternal and Child Health, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China
    2. 2 Hainan Eye Hospital and Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology, Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center, Sun Yat-sen University, Haikou, China
    3. 3 Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China
    4. 4 Department of Radiology, Henan Provincial People’s Hospital, Zhengzhou, China
    5. 5 Guangzhou Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution and Health Risk Assessment, Guangdong Provincial Engineering Technology Research Center of Environmental and Health risk Assessment, Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
    1. Correspondence to Dr Yajun Chen; chenyajun68{at}yeah.net

    Abstract

    Background Myopia is a pervasive global public health concern, particularly among the younger population. However, the escalating prevalence of myopia remains uncertain. Hence, our research aims to ascertain the global and regional prevalence of myopia, along with its occurrence within specific demographic groups.

    Methods An exhaustive literature search was performed on several databases covering the period from their inception to 27 June 2023. The global prevalence of myopia was determined by employing pooled estimates with a 95% CI, and further analysis was conducted to assess variations in prevalence estimates across different subgroups. Additionally, a time series model was utilised to forecast and fit accurately the future prevalence of myopia for the next three decades.

    Results This study encompasses a comprehensive analysis of 276 studies, involving a total of 5 410 945 participants from 50 countries across all six continents. The findings revealed a gradual increase in pooled prevalence of myopia, ranging from 24.32% (95% CI 15.23% to 33.40%) to 35.81% (95% CI 31.70% to 39.91%), observed from 1990 to 2023, and projections indicate that this prevalence is expected to reach 36.59% in 2040 and 39.80% in 2050. Notably, individuals residing in East Asia (35.22%) or in urban areas (28.55%), female gender (33.57%), adolescents (47.00%), and high school students (45.71%) exhibit a higher proportion of myopia prevalence.

    Conclusion The global prevalence of childhood myopia is substantial, affecting approximately one-third of children and adolescents, with notable variations in prevalence across different demographic groups. It is anticipated that the global incidence of myopia will exceed 740 million cases by 2050.

    • Child health (paediatrics)
    • Epidemiology
    • Eye (Globe)
    • Public health
    • Vision

    Data availability statement

    All data relevant to the study are included in the article or uploaded as supplementary information. All the data included in our study are from published studies.

    https://doi.org/10.1136/bjo-2024-325427

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      Data availability statement

      All data relevant to the study are included in the article or uploaded as supplementary information. All the data included in our study are from published studies.

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      Footnotes

      • JL, YP and JC contributed equally.

      • Contributors JHL: conceptualisation, literature search, screening, data extraction, formal analysis, methodology, resources, software, visualisation, writing - original draft, writing - review and editing. YQP: literature search, screening, data curation, visualisation, data extraction, writing - original draft, writing - review and editing. JQC: literature search, screening, data curation, data extraction, writing - review and editing. MLL: screening, data extraction, software, visualisation. BWO: methodology, writing - review and editing. ZGJ: screening, data extraction, resources. WXG: screening, data extraction, software. ZWW: screening, data extraction, resources. XZY: screening, data extraction, software. CSQ: screening, data extraction, resources. CW: methodology, writing - review and editing. SH: resources, writing - review and editing. NJ: software, writing - review and editing. LXH: resources, writing - review and editing. YSZ: software, writing - review and editing. ZHG: resources, writing - review and editing. XYP: software, writing - review and editing. SYH: resources, writing - review and editing. YJC: conceptualisation, funding acquisition, project administration, resources, supervision, validation, writing - review and editing.YJC is the guarantor.

      • Funding The work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 82273650).

      • Competing interests None declared.

      • Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.

      • Supplemental material This content has been supplied by the author(s). It has not been vetted by BMJ Publishing Group Limited (BMJ) and may not have been peer-reviewed. Any opinions or recommendations discussed are solely those of the author(s) and are not endorsed by BMJ. BMJ disclaims all liability and responsibility arising from any reliance placed on the content. Where the content includes any translated material, BMJ does not warrant the accuracy and reliability of the translations (including but not limited to local regulations, clinical guidelines, terminology, drug names and drug dosages), and is not responsible for any error and/or omissions arising from translation and adaptation or otherwise.