RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 The estimated prevalence and incidence of late stage age related macular degeneration in the UK
JF British Journal of Ophthalmology
JO Br J Ophthalmol
FD BMJ Publishing Group Ltd.
SP 752
OP 756
DO 10.1136/bjophthalmol-2011-301109
VO 96
IS 5
A1 Christopher G Owen
A1 Zakariya Jarrar
A1 Richard Wormald
A1 Derek G Cook
A1 Astrid E Fletcher
A1 Alicja R Rudnicka
YR 2012
UL http://bjo.bmj.com/content/96/5/752.abstract
AB Background UK estimates of age related macular degeneration (AMD) occurrence vary.Aims To estimate prevalence, number and incidence of AMD by type in the UK population aged ≥50 years.Methods Age-specific prevalence rates of AMD obtained from a Bayesian meta-analysis of AMD prevalence were applied to UK 2007–2009 population data. Incidence was estimated from modelled age-specific prevalence.Results Overall prevalence of late AMD was 2.4% (95% credible interval (CrI) 1.7% to 3.3%), equivalent to 513 000 cases (95% CrI 363 000 to 699 000); estimated to increase to 679 000 cases by 2020. Prevalences were 4.8% aged ≥65 years, 12.2% aged ≥80 years. Geographical atrophy (GA) prevalence rates were 1.3% (95% CrI 0.9% to 1.9%), 2.6% (95% CrI 1.8% to 3.7%) and 6.7% (95% CrI 4.6% to 9.6%); neovascular AMD (NVAMD) 1.2% (95% CrI 0.9% to 1.7%), 2.5% (95% CrI 1.8% to 3.4%) and 6.3% (95% CrI 4.5% to 8.6%), respectively. The estimated number of prevalent cases of late AMD were 60% higher in women versus men (314 000 cases in women, 192 000 men). Annual incidence of late AMD, GA and NVAMD per 1000 women was 4.1 (95% CrI 2.4% to 6.8%), 2.4 (95% CrI 1.5% to 3.9%) and 2.3 (95% CrI 1.4% to 4.0%); in men 2.6 (95% CrI 1.5% to 4.4%), 1.7 (95% CrI 1.0% to 2.8%) and 1.4 (95% CrI 0.8% to 2.4%), respectively. 71 000 new cases of late AMD were estimated per year.Conclusions These estimates will guide health and social service provision for those with late AMD and enable estimation of the cost of introducing new treatments.