Change in the population pool of vision impairing cataract, over a 5 year period to year 2001, under various assumptions concerning the level and pattern of cataract surgery. The population pool of unoperated cataract at start of the 5 year period = 2 356 546
| Assumptions | Vision impairing cataract: | Comments on cataract backlog by the year 2001 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size of pool by year 2001, and % change | Number expected to die without sight restoring surgery | Total number of operations on people aged 65 and older | |||
| 1 Current practice unchanged over the 5 year period (as in Table 3) | 2 556 477 (+8.48%) | 732 836 | 764 330 | Marked worsening of the cataract backlog | |
| To prevent the backlog worsening: | |||||
| 2 No additional operations, but all surgery in the age group 65 and older directed to people with impaired vision (<6/12) | 2 435 579 (+3.35%) | 693 269 | 764 330 | Substantial improvement on (1) above, but the backlog still increasing | |
| 3 476 500 additional operations allocated to the cases aged 65 and older | 2 356 549 (0.00%) | 657 546 | 1 240 830 | Backlog virtually unchanged—ie, no worsening | |
| 4 346 000 additional operations all directed to people with visual acuity <6/12 | 2 356 575 (0.00%) | 660 255 | 1 110 330 | Backlog virtually unchanged—ie, no worsening | |
| 5 All operations in age group 65+ directed to people with visual acuity <6/12 and 136 600 additional operations similarly directed | 2 356 658 (0.00%) | 664 614 | 900 930 | Backlog virtually unchanged—ie, no worsening | |