Model parameter | Name used in Markov model | Parameter value (base value) | Range used for univariate sensitivity analysis | Distribution used for Monte-Carlo simulation |
---|---|---|---|---|

*β distribution (α; β); †uniform distribution (minimum; maximum); ‡discounted by 3% discount rate to year when treatment is started; §t distribution (degrees of freedom; mean; observed standard deviation); ||mortality rate for men in Germany; # mortality rate of women in Germany. | ||||

Effectiveness of treatment
| ||||

Probability of success of treatment | p_eff | 0.750 | 0.600–0.900 | β (23.26; 7.75)* |

Utilities
| ||||

Healthy | u_health | 1.000 | (none) | (none) |

Unilateral visual impairment | u_mono | 0.960 | 0.920–1.000 | Uniform (0.92; 1.00)† |

Bilateral visual impairment | u_impair | 0.780 | 0.710–0.850 | β (104.14; 29.38)* |

Costs
| ||||

Costs of treatment‡ | c_tx | 2083 | 796–3370 | t distribution (11; 2083; 585)§ |

Transition probabilities
| ||||

Mortality for men | tpDeathm | see|| | (none) | (none) |

Mortality for women | tpDeathf | see# | (none) | (none) |

Transition probability per year from “unilateral visual impairment caused by amblyopia“ to “bilateral visual impairment,” by sex and age | ||||

Men | tp_vis_m | p_trans × tp_vis_m, distribution of p_trans: Uniform [0.5; 1.5]† | ||

49–51 years | 0.00166 | 0.00083–0.00248 | ||

52–59 years | 0.00005 | 0.00003–0.00008 | ||

60–69 years | 0.00204 | 0.00102–0.00306 | ||

70–79 years | 0.00248 | 0.00124–0.00372 | ||

80–89 years | 0.00325 | 0.00163–0.00488 | ||

Women | tp_vis_f | p_trans × tp_vis_f, distribution of p_trans: Uniform [0.5; 1.5]† | ||

49–51 years | 0.00046 | 0.00023–0.00069 | ||

52–59 years | 0.00026 | 0.00013–0.00039 | ||

60–69 years | 0.00088 | 0.00044–0.00132 | ||

70–79 years | 0.00324 | 0.00162–0.00486 | ||

80–89 years | 0.00201 | 0.00100–0.00301 | ||

Transition probability per year from „healthy“ to „unilateral visual impairment (no amblyopia)“, by sex and age | ||||

Men | tp_mono_m | p_trans × tp_vis_f, distribution of p_trans: Uniform [0.5; 1.5]† | ||

49–51 years | 0.00435 | 0.00217–0.00652 | ||

52–59 years | 0.00012 | 0.00006–0.00018 | ||

60–69 years | 0.00541 | 0.00270–0.00811 | ||

70–79 years | ` | 0.00629 | 0.00315–0.00944 | |

80–89 years | 0.00729 | 0.00365–0.01094 | ||

Women | tp_mono_f | p_trans × tp_mono_f, distribution of p_trans: Uniform [0.5; 1.5]† | ||

49–51 years | 0.00121 | 0.00061–0.00182 | ||

52–59 years | 0.00068 | 0.00034–0.00103 | ||

60–69 years | 0.00232 | 0.00116–0.00347 | ||

70–79 years | 0.00862 | 0.00431–0.01293 | ||

80–89 years | 0.00431 | 0.00215–0.00646 | ||

Discount rate
| ||||

Discount rate for costs | cDR | 0.030 | (0.000–0.050) | (none) |

Discount rate for effects | oDR | 0.030 | (0.000–0.050) | (none) |