Table 1

Parameter values for Markov model with range used for univariate sensitivity analysis and distribution used for Monte-Carlo simulation

Model parameterName used in Markov modelParameter value (base value)Range used for univariate sensitivity analysisDistribution used for Monte-Carlo simulation
*β distribution (α; β); †uniform distribution (minimum; maximum); ‡discounted by 3% discount rate to year when treatment is started; §t distribution (degrees of freedom; mean; observed standard deviation); ||mortality rate for men in Germany; # mortality rate of women in Germany.
Effectiveness of treatment
Probability of success of treatmentp_eff0.7500.600–0.900β (23.26; 7.75)*
Unilateral visual impairmentu_mono0.9600.920–1.000Uniform (0.92; 1.00)†
Bilateral visual impairmentu_impair0.7800.710–0.850β (104.14; 29.38)*
Costs of treatment‡c_tx2083796–3370t distribution (11; 2083; 585)§
Transition probabilities
Mortality for mentpDeathmsee||(none)(none)
Mortality for womentpDeathfsee#(none)(none)
Transition probability per year from “unilateral visual impairment caused by amblyopia“ to “bilateral visual impairment,” by sex and age
Mentp_vis_mp_trans × tp_vis_m, distribution of p_trans: Uniform [0.5; 1.5]†
    49–51 years0.001660.00083–0.00248
    52–59 years0.000050.00003–0.00008
    60–69 years0.002040.00102–0.00306
    70–79 years0.002480.00124–0.00372
    80–89 years0.003250.00163–0.00488
Womentp_vis_fp_trans × tp_vis_f, distribution of p_trans: Uniform [0.5; 1.5]†
    49–51 years0.000460.00023–0.00069
    52–59 years0.000260.00013–0.00039
    60–69 years0.000880.00044–0.00132
    70–79 years0.003240.00162–0.00486
    80–89 years0.002010.00100–0.00301
Transition probability per year from „healthy“ to „unilateral visual impairment (no amblyopia)“, by sex and age
Mentp_mono_mp_trans × tp_vis_f, distribution of p_trans: Uniform [0.5; 1.5]†
    49–51 years0.004350.00217–0.00652
    52–59 years0.000120.00006–0.00018
    60–69 years0.005410.00270–0.00811
    70–79 years`0.006290.00315–0.00944
    80–89 years0.007290.00365–0.01094
Womentp_mono_fp_trans × tp_mono_f, distribution of p_trans: Uniform [0.5; 1.5]†
    49–51 years0.001210.00061–0.00182
    52–59 years0.000680.00034–0.00103
    60–69 years0.002320.00116–0.00347
    70–79 years0.008620.00431–0.01293
    80–89 years0.004310.00215–0.00646
Discount rate
Discount rate for costscDR0.030(0.000–0.050)(none)
Discount rate for effectsoDR0.030(0.000–0.050)(none)