Table 1

 Incidence and odds ratio of diabetes mellitus, by retinopathy signs, in all people and stratified by family history of diabetes

Non-specific retinopathyIncident diabetes*Incident diabetes (alternative)*
Numbersat risk%Age, sex, raceMultivariate%Age, sex, raceMultivariate
OR (95% CI)†OR (95% CI)‡OR (95% CI)†OR (95% CI)‡
*Incident diabetes defined as fasting serum glucose of ⩾7.0 mmol/l, casual glucose ⩾11.1 mmol/l, diabetic medications use, or physician diagnosis of diabetes. Alternative definition of incident diabetes includes these criteria or a 2 hour post-load serum glucose of ⩾11.1 mmol/l.
†Odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of incident diabetes, adjusted for age, sex, and race
‡Odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of incident diabetes, adjusted for age, sex, race, fasting glucose, fasting insulin, 6 year mean arterial blood pressure, and body mass index.
All people
Absent7,6113.61.01.08.91.01.0
Present3814.71.2 (0.7 to 2.0)1.1 (0.7 to 1.9)10.91.2 (0.9 to 1.7)1.1 (0.8 to 1.6)
No family history of diabetes
Absent5,9613.21.01.08.31.01.0
Present3043.30.9 (0.4 to 1.7)0.8 (0.4 to 1.6)8.71.0 (0.6 to 1.5)0.9 (0.5 to 1.3)
Family history of diabetes
Absent1,6504.81.01.011.01.01.0
Present7710.42.5 (1.1 to 5.3)2.3 (1.0 to 5.3)19.52.1 (1.2 to 3.8)2.0 (1.1 to 3.8)