Table 2

Optimism adjusted model performance (95% CIs) for prediction of circulatory mortality, incident stroke and myocardial infarction models developed in UK Biobank cohort (2009–2018) with external validation in EPIC-Norfolk cohort (2004–2018)

ModelUK Biobank menUK Biobank womenEPIC-Norfolk menEPIC-Norfolk women
Circulatory mortality (number of events/sample size)
Age, smoking, medical history+RV (227/29 257)(100/35 887)(114/2516)(87/3346)
Calibration slope0.913 (0.800 to 1.026)0.857 (0.732 to 0.982)1.084 (0.888 to 1.279)0.872 (0.674 to 1.070)
C-statistic0.749 (0.720 to 0.779)0.763 (0.717 to 0.810)0.774 (0.732 to 0.815)0.748 (0.692 to 0.805)
R2 0.369 (0.310 to 0.427)0.443 (0.369 to 0.518)0.392 (0.302 to 0.482)0.333 (0.228 to 0.438)
Stroke (number of events/sample size)
FRS for stroke (245/28 573)(201/35 266)(98/2432)(113/3276)
Calibration slope0.908 (0.769 to 1.047)0.919 (0.764 to 1.074)0.819 (0.552 to 1.087)0.943 (0.734 to 1.152)
C-statistic0.736 (0.706 to 0.766)0.736 (0.702 to 0.770)0.682 (0.629 to 0.735)0.732 (0.682 to 0.781)
R2 0.295 (0.233 to 0.358)0.310 (0.240 to 0.379)0.199 (0.098 to 0.300)0.309 (0.215 to 0.402)
Age, smoking, medical history+RV
Calibration slope0.896 (0.767 to 1.025)0.860 (0.729 to 0.991)0.808 (0.571 to 1.045)0.780 (0.603 to 0.958)
C-statistic0.729 (0.699 to 0.759)0.753 (0.721 to 0.784)0.691 (0.637 to 0.746)0.714 (0.660 to 0.768)
R2 0.315 (0.256 to 0.375)0.352 (0.289 to 0.416)0.213 (0.113 to 0.314)0.274 (0.179 to 0.369)
Myocardial infarction (number of events/sample size)
FRS for confirmed MI (275/19 150)(118/26 584)(166/1622)(99/2440)
Calibration slope1.216 (0.994 to 1.439)1.036 (0.813 to 1.260)1.567 (1.210 to 1.924)0.834 (0.583 to 1.085)
C-statistic0.706 (0.678 to 0.734)0.758 (0.718 to 0.798)0.689 (0.650 to 0.728)0.688 (0.640 to 0.737)
R2 0.235 (0.175 to 0.295)0.345 (0.256 to 0.433)0.233 (0.153 to 0.312)0.208 (0.109 to 0.308)
Age, smoking, medical history+RV
Calibration slope0.836 (0.673 to 0.999)0.803 (0.590 to 1.016)0.905 (0.655 to 1.156)0.786 (0.517 to 1.054)
C-statistic0.675 (0.647 to 0.703)0.709 (0.669 to 0.749)0.641 (0.598 to 0.683)0.650 (0.593 to 0.707)
R2 0.178 (0.118 to 0.238)0.226 (0.136 to 0.316)0.150 (0.077 to 0.224)0.162 (0.067 to 0.256)
  • Framingham risk scores (FRS) for incident stroke and myocardial infarction are also presented.

  • Estimates for calibration slope, C-statistic and R2 values are given with bootstrapped 95% CI in parenthesis.

  • FRS, Framingham risk score; RV, retinal vasculometry.