Objective: To determine whether glaucoma patients with progressive optic disc change have subsequent visual field progression earlier and at a faster rate compared with those without disc change.
Design: Prospective, longitudinal, cohort study.
Participants and controls: Eighty-one patients with open-angle glaucoma.
Methods: Patients underwent confocal scanning laser tomography and standard automated perimetry every 6 months. The complete follow-up was divided into initial and subsequent periods. Two initial periods-first 3 years (Protocol A) and first half of the total follow-up (Protocol B)-were used, with the respective remainder being the subsequent follow-up. Disc change during the initial follow-up was determined with liberal, moderate, or conservative criteria of the Topographic Change Analysis. Subsequent field progression was determined with significant pattern deviation change in >or=3 locations (criterion used in the Early Manifest Glaucoma Trial). As a control analysis, field change during the initial follow-up was determined with significant pattern deviation change in >or=1, >or=2, or >or=3 locations.
Main outcome measures: Survival time to subsequent field progression, rates of mean deviation (MD) change, and positive and negative likelihood ratios.
Results: The median (interquartile range) total follow-up was 11.0 (8.0-12.0) years with 22 (18-24) examinations. More patients had disc changes during the initial follow-up compared with field changes. The mean time to field progression was consistently shorter (protocol A, 0.8-1.7 years; protocol B, 0.3-0.7 years) in patients with prior disc change. In the control analysis, patients with prior field change had statistically earlier subsequent field progression (protocol A, 2.9-3.0 years; protocol B, 0.7-0.9). Similarly, patients with either prior disc or field change always had worse mean rates of subsequent MD change, although the distributions overlapped widely. Patients with subsequent field progression were up to 3 times more likely to have prior disc change compared with those without, and up to 5 times more likely to have prior field change compared with those without.
Conclusions: Longitudinally measured optic disc change is predictive of subsequent visual field progression and may be an efficacious end point for functional outcomes in clinical studies and trials in glaucoma.