Objective: To develop a birth weight (BW), gestational age (GA), and postnatal-weight gain retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) prediction model in a cohort of infants meeting current screening guidelines.
Methods: Multivariate logistic regression was applied retrospectively to data from infants born with BW less than 1501 g or GA of 30 weeks or less at a single Philadelphia hospital between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2009. In the model, BW, GA, and daily weight gain rate were used repeatedly each week to predict risk of Early Treatment of Retinopathy of Prematurity type 1 or 2 ROP. If risk was above a cut-point level, examinations would be indicated.
Results: Of 524 infants, 20 (4%) had type 1 ROP and received laser treatment; 28 (5%) had type 2 ROP. The model (Children's Hospital of Philadelphia [CHOP]) accurately predicted all infants with type 1 ROP; missed 1 infant with type 2 ROP, who did not require laser treatment; and would have reduced the number of infants requiring examinations by 49%. Raising the cut point to miss one type 1 ROP case would have reduced the need for examinations by 79%. Using daily weight measurements to calculate weight gain rate resulted in slightly higher examination reduction than weekly measurements.
Conclusions: The BW-GA-weight gain CHOP ROP model demonstrated accurate ROP risk assessment and a large reduction in the number of ROP examinations compared with current screening guidelines. As a simple logistic equation, it can be calculated by hand or represented as a nomogram for easy clinical use. However, larger studies are needed to achieve a highly precise estimate of sensitivity prior to clinical application.