Two thirds of 60 patients followed up after enucleation for uveal melanoma with extrascleral extension eventually died of metastatic disease. Large intraocular tumor size, more malignant cell types, optic nerve invasion, and surgical transection or nonencapsulation of the extraocular tumor margin were found to be significantly correlated with development of metastases. Advanced age at enucleation and large intraocular tumor size were significantly associated with early metastatic death. Recurrence of tumor in the orbit was identified in 10% of the patients and was significantly correlated with large intraocular tumor size and optic nerve invasion. Early exenteration, performed in seven cases, did not improve prognosis. Application of Bayesian methods produced a multifactorial model for prediction of metastatic disease within 13 years after enucleation.