The estimated prevalence and incidence of late stage age related macular degeneration in the UK
- Christopher G Owen1,
- Zakariya Jarrar1,
- Richard Wormald2,3,
- Derek G Cook1,
- Astrid E Fletcher2,
- Alicja R Rudnicka1
- 1Division of Population Health Sciences and Education, St George's, University of London, London, UK
- 2London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- 3Moorfields Eye Hospital, London, UK
- Correspondence to Dr Christopher G Owen, Division of Population Health Sciences and Education, St George's, University of London, Cranmer Terrace, London SW17 0RE, UK;
Contributors All authors contributed to conception and design of this paper. ARR carried out the statistical analysis. CGO and ARR conceived and raised funding for this study with help from RW and AEF. The paper was critically appraised by all authors for intellectual content; CGO drafted the paper and is the guarantor. The guarantor accepts full responsibility for the integrity of the work as a whole. All authors had access to the data and approved the final version to be published.
- Accepted 28 December 2011
- Published Online First 13 February 2012
Background UK estimates of age related macular degeneration (AMD) occurrence vary.
Aims To estimate prevalence, number and incidence of AMD by type in the UK population aged ≥50 years.
Methods Age-specific prevalence rates of AMD obtained from a Bayesian meta-analysis of AMD prevalence were applied to UK 2007–2009 population data. Incidence was estimated from modelled age-specific prevalence.
Results Overall prevalence of late AMD was 2.4% (95% credible interval (CrI) 1.7% to 3.3%), equivalent to 513 000 cases (95% CrI 363 000 to 699 000); estimated to increase to 679 000 cases by 2020. Prevalences were 4.8% aged ≥65 years, 12.2% aged ≥80 years. Geographical atrophy (GA) prevalence rates were 1.3% (95% CrI 0.9% to 1.9%), 2.6% (95% CrI 1.8% to 3.7%) and 6.7% (95% CrI 4.6% to 9.6%); neovascular AMD (NVAMD) 1.2% (95% CrI 0.9% to 1.7%), 2.5% (95% CrI 1.8% to 3.4%) and 6.3% (95% CrI 4.5% to 8.6%), respectively. The estimated number of prevalent cases of late AMD were 60% higher in women versus men (314 000 cases in women, 192 000 men). Annual incidence of late AMD, GA and NVAMD per 1000 women was 4.1 (95% CrI 2.4% to 6.8%), 2.4 (95% CrI 1.5% to 3.9%) and 2.3 (95% CrI 1.4% to 4.0%); in men 2.6 (95% CrI 1.5% to 4.4%), 1.7 (95% CrI 1.0% to 2.8%) and 1.4 (95% CrI 0.8% to 2.4%), respectively. 71 000 new cases of late AMD were estimated per year.
Conclusions These estimates will guide health and social service provision for those with late AMD and enable estimation of the cost of introducing new treatments.
Funding The work was supported by a grant from the Macular Diseases Society and commissioned on behalf of the Macular Interest Group of Vision 2020, UK.
Competing interests None.
Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.
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